the quant philosopher.
essays
manifesto
wallpapers
enter lifeark
← All topics
Topic
#decision-making
2 essays on decision-making.
Jun 1, 2026 · 2m
Stop Overfitting Your Life
The same error that ruins a trading model ruins a life: mistaking noise for signal, and rebuilding everything around the last data point.
May 24, 2026 · 2m
The Discipline of Changing Your Mind
Bayesian updating is not flip-flopping. It's the rule for moving your beliefs by exactly the weight of the evidence — no more, no less.